Finn's Take· TL;DRAirlines worldwide have begun canceling flights as the war in the Middle East strains jet fuel supplies and pushes up prices , creating one of the most severe disruptions to air travel since the pandemic. Jet fuel prices soared 103% month-on-month as of March, with U.S. prices surging 95 percent from $2.50 per gallon on Feb. 27 to $4.88 on April 2 . The global price of jet fuel increased from about $99 per barrel at the end of February to as high as $209 a barrel at the beginning of April .
Lufthansa Group said this week it is cutting 20,000 short-haul flights across its network through October , while SAS will cancel 1,000 flights in April and United Airlines is scaling back unprofitable flights over the next two quarters . More than 150,000 international flights were cut worldwide between March and June 2026 compared to pre-war schedules .
Europe's airline industry is at risk of a "systemic" jet fuel shortage in the next few weeks if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, with the potential of hundreds of flight cuts . Around 75 per cent of Europe's jet fuel imports come from the region, making any prolonged disruption especially challenging .
For travelers, it can mean having to navigate a confusing web of passenger protections that vary widely depending on where they're flying . Unlike weather-related cancellations, fuel-related cuts are often being made days or weeks in advance , giving passengers more time to adjust their plans.
In the U.S., for example, if your flight is canceled and you choose not to travel, the airline must refund you, regardless of the reason . Airlines may offer travel credits instead, but you're entitled to a full refund for airfare and any extras you didn't use, such as baggage fees or seat upgrades .
Europe has some of the strongest protections, including compensation in certain cases . "While airlines are citing fuel shortages as a reason for upcoming cancellations, travelers need to know that this does not automatically waive their rights" under EU laws , according to Eric Napoli of AirHelp.
Sign up for flight alerts to stay informed, and book directly with the airline when possible — it's much easier to resolve issues with the carrier directly than through a third-party booking site . Check your airline's app or website immediately for rebooking options when disruptions occur.
Save everything: boarding passes, receipts, cancellation notices and any communication from the airline. Take screenshots of app or website updates and any communication taking place online, and jot down key details from phone calls . Documentation becomes crucial for securing refunds or compensation.
Experts recommend searching the name of the country you're departing from and "passenger rights" before your trip to understand what protections apply to your specific journey.
These pressures are arriving at a time when summer travel demand is ramping up, with major events such as the World Cup expected to put additional strain on airports . When supply drops, airlines pass these costs to consumers via "fuel surcharges." Travelers may see the base fare stay the same while taxes and fees could double, and they may see increased fees for checked bags, seat selection and even in-flight amenities .
"Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, my sources tell me that the cost of oil and jet fuel is not going to simply drop right away... There's going to be a ton of pent-up demand, and it's going to take a long while to work through the hangover of this, even if it ends up being a short-term war" , according to industry experts. The aviation industry faces months of elevated prices and reduced capacity, fundamentally reshaping how people travel globally.