Finn's Take· TL;DRThe United States and Iran reached a tentative agreement on Thursday to extend their shaky ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but President Trump's approval remains pending . The memorandum of understanding would include language lifting constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, allowing unrestricted navigation by vessels and the lifting of a US blockade, with Iran required to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days .
Under normal conditions, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and a significant volume of non-oil goods pass through the waterway daily, and its closure has pushed energy prices sharply higher and disrupted global supply chains . Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that "there are almost 2,000 ships waiting to come out of the Gulf" and predicted prices could "come down very quickly" once shipping resumes .
If signed by both sides, the MOU will mark the biggest step toward forging a peace deal since the Iran war began on Feb. 28 . However, Tehran has not immediately confirmed that any deal was reached with Washington , and US sources all cautioned that any advancements in the talks could be upended quickly if Trump decides to withhold his approval .
The MOU will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon and state that the first issues to be negotiated during the 60-day window will be how to dispose of Iran's highly enriched uranium and how to address Iranian enrichment . Treasury Secretary Bessent insisted that any deal would need to meet Trump's demands that Iran turn over its highly enriched uranium and commit not to pursue a nuclear weapon, noting that "nothing is going to be on the table until we see the Strait of Hormuz open" .
The U.S. will commit to discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds as part of the negotiations . The U.S. would also issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely , though Bessent downplayed suggestions that sanctions could be lifted quickly, saying "I would think things would go very slowly in terms of that" .
US officials claimed the Iranians had given verbal commitments about their willingness to make nuclear concessions, but warned that if it becomes clear during negotiations that Iran is unable to deliver on the nuclear issue, Trump will have all options on the table — economic and military .
The tentative agreement emerged after hopes of a deal nearly faded, as both the US and Iran have started exchanging fire over the last 24 hours amid a fragile ceasefire . The U.S. Central Command said the military conducted "defensive strikes" in southern Iran on Monday, arguing they needed to protect U.S. forces and that Iranian boats were trying to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz .
Earlier Thursday, US Central Command confirmed that Iran fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait overnight, which was intercepted, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claiming it launched an attack targeting an American air base . U.S. Central Command argued that attack constituted an "egregious" violation of the ongoing ceasefire .
Trump has been under pressure from members of his own party, along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, to reject a deal that would ease pressure on Iran, and has been seeking advice to ensure the deal is strong enough . On Wednesday, he insisted any deal has to be a good one, saying "I think they are starting to give us the things that they have to give us, and if they do, that's great, and if they won't, then the man on my left is going to finish them off" .
A member of Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission told news agency ISNA that "a large part of the Islamic Republic of Iran's proposals have been accepted," but expressed concern about "the unpredictability of Trump and the lapses in commitments that we have witnessed so far from the United States" .
The war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah would conclude as part of the MOU, though the ongoing conflict has at times been a point of contention between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump . The withdrawal of U.S. forces sent to the region is subject to a final agreement .
The coming days will prove crucial as both leaders weigh a deal that could reshape Middle Eastern dynamics. With global shipping lanes hanging in the balance and nuclear proliferation concerns