Gulf Oil Exports May Halt Within Weeks as Iran Conflict Escalates

Energy Crisis Looms as Gulf Producers Face Production Shutdown

The global energy landscape faces its most severe threat in years as Gulf oil producers could halt exports within weeks due to the ongoing Middle East war, sending crude prices to $150 a barrel, according to Qatar's energy minister . Brent crude oil rose more than 9% on Friday, topping $93 a barrel - the highest level since autumn 2023 .

Speaking to the Financial Times, Al-Kaabi said that "everybody that has ​not called for force majeure we expect ⁠will do so in the next ​few days that this continues. All exporters in ​the Gulf region will have to call force majeure." This legal mechanism allows companies to suspend contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances beyond their control.

Qatar halted its liquefied natural gas production on March 2, as Iranian retaliation for US and Israeli strikes continued to target Gulf countries. The halt takes a major facility offline that accounts for roughly 20 percent of global supply, a key resource that balances demand in both Asian and European markets .

Strategic Chokepoint Under Threat

The price surge followed the start of the war on Feb. 28, which halted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that typically carries approximately one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply, or about 20 million barrels per day . Meanwhile, hundreds of ships have been stranded due to Tehran's threats to strike vessels in the Straight of Hormuz, affecting up to 20% of global oil trade .

Salamey said Iran aims to widen the conflict to make it globally costly: "By threatening Gulf infrastructure and shipping, Tehran hopes GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) states will pressure Washington to negotiate and end the war." The strategy represents a calculated effort to leverage energy markets as a geopolitical weapon.

Blocking the strait could make goods and services more expensive globally, and hit some of the world's biggest economies, including China, India and Japan, which are among the top importers of crude oil passing through the waterway .

Widespread Economic Disruption Expected

He added that if the war continues for a few weeks, "GDP growth around the world" will be impacted. "Everybody's energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of ​some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply," ​Kaabi said . The ripple effects extend far beyond fuel costs, threatening manufacturing supply chains and consumer goods.

Rising oil prices can have wide-reaching effects, not only on how much it costs to fill up your vehicle but also on the cost of some heating, food and imported goods. Five ways the Iran war could affect you - in charts · There are warnings that if the price of oil and gas - which has also surged this week - remain high, this could fuel inflation in major world economies such as the UK and US, where it has been on a broadly downward trend .

Recovery Timeline Remains Uncertain

Al-Kaabi said even if the ​war ended immediately it would take ​Qatar "weeks to months" to return to a normal cycle ‌of ⁠deliveries . This extended recovery period means that even a swift resolution to the conflict would leave global energy markets disrupted well into the future.

Rystad Energy's Leon said if countries in the Gulf cannot export oil they will need to store it, and, when this storage runs out, stop production. They have between days and a few weeks of reaching that point, depending on how much storage they have . The timeline creates an urgent pressure point that could force producers into difficult decisions within days rather than weeks.

The situation presents a stark reminder of how geopolitical conflicts can instantly reshape global economics. With energy infrastructure increasingly targeted and shipping routes under threat, the world economy faces a test of resilience that could redefine energy security priorities for years to come.