Trump Ultimatum Backfires as Iran Threatens Complete Strait Closure

Escalating Standoff Threatens Global Energy Supply

President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran on Saturday, warning the U.S. would strike its power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened . On Saturday evening, the 79-year-old commander-in-chief threatened to "obliterate" Iran's power plants if the country did not end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours . Trump said if Iran didn't open the strait, the U.S. would destroy its "various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!"

Trump appears to have issued his ultimatum to compel Iran to back down from the strait—but it appears to have had the opposite effect. The president's attempt to bully Iran into submission didn't go as planned . The Islamic Guard (IRGC), the regime's military arm, which practically owns the Iranian energy sector, threatened to close the world's busiest oil chokepoint "completely" if the U.S. president followed through on his ultimatum .

Iran, in response, said if Trump makes good on his threats, it would completely close the Strait of Hormuz and will not reopen it until any destroyed power plants are rebuilt . Iran said in a statement carried by state media and semi-official outlets, citing an Iranian military spokesperson: "If Iran's fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy and information technology infrastructure and desalination plants belonging to the United States and the Israeli entity in the region will be targeted" .

Iran Reveals Surprising Long-Range Missile Capabilities

The Islamic Republic of Iran significantly escalated its war effort against the U.S. with its launch of two intermediate-range ballistic missiles on Friday toward Diego Garcia, a key U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean. Iran fired two missiles at the facility located in the Indian Ocean around 2,370 miles (3,810 kilometers) from Iran's coast, but neither of them struck the base .

The Iranian attack on the Diego Garcia air base — located about 2,500 miles (4,000 kilometers) from Iran — indicated Tehran has in its stockpile missiles that can travel much further than it had previously acknowledged. Missiles of that range would put most of Western Europe in range of Iran's missile arsenal . When Khamenei was alive, he limited the range of Iran's missile program to 2,000 kilometers. Khamenei recounted in 2018 how he had rejected overtures from IRGC commanders seeking to increase the range to as much as 5,000 kilometers .

But now that he has died, those voices in the IRGC seeking to increase the range are likely driving the agenda. The launch of the missiles was likely meant as a signal of the IRGC's capabilities to threaten U.S. allies beyond the Middle East . Israel Defense Forces IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said "Just yesterday, Iran launched a two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers [2,500 miles] toward an American target on the island of Diego Garcia. Their range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range" .

Economic Impact Spreads Globally

Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through it, but attacks on ships and threats of further strikes have stopped nearly all tanker traffic . Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed 1.69% to about $114.09 a barrel at the open. US crude rose 2% to $100.29 . Gas prices in the U.S. have spiked roughly 30 percent as Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that transports up to a fifth of global oil supplies .

The potential tit-for-tat attacks on energy infrastructure in the region threaten to dramatically worsen what the International Energy Agency has called "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The national average gas price in the U.S. reached $3.942 over the weekend, according to AAA. Brent crude has surged nearly 50% to $112 a barrel since the start of the war .

New Leadership Under Pressure

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei praised Iranians' steadfastness in the face of war in a written statement read on Iranian television to mark the Persian New Year, or Nowruz. Khamenei has not been seen in public since he became supreme leader after Israeli strikes killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and reportedly wounded him . Aside from a written message read out on state TV, the country's new supreme leader has not been seen in