Finn's Take· TL;DRImagine trying to measure the speed of a car using two different methods, only to get completely different answers every time. That's essentially what's happening with one of the most fundamental questions in cosmology: how fast is the universe expanding ? This mismatch is known as the Hubble tension, and it stands as one of the most important unresolved problems in modern cosmology .
Scientists use multiple techniques to measure the present-day expansion rate of the universe, known as the Hubble constant. These methods are internally consistent and based on the same physics, so all observed values of the Hubble constant should agree. But those that come from early-universe datasets disagree with those that come from late-universe datasets . The discrepancy isn't small—it's significant enough to suggest either our measurements are wrong or we're missing something crucial about how the universe works.
A group of astrophysicists and cosmologists at The Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and at the University of Chicago has introduced a new way to calculate the Hubble constant using gravitational waves, which are tiny ripples in spacetime . These ripples are created when energetic collisions of compact astrophysical objects such as black holes occur across the universe.
What makes this approach truly groundbreaking is that it doesn't rely on detecting individual black hole collisions. Instead, every black hole collision in the universe sends ripples through spacetime. Most of those ripples are too faint, originating too far away, for any detector on Earth to pick up. But they're out there — a kind of cosmic background noise, an unresolved hum built from billions of distant catastrophes . The team calls their innovative approach the stochastic siren method, after the randomness — technically, stochasticity — in how the background mergers are distributed .
The logic behind this method is elegantly simple. If the universe were expanding more slowly, there would be less space overall, meaning the density of collisions would be higher and the background signal stronger. If the expansion were faster, the opposite would be true . By analyzing whether this background gravitational wave signal is present or absent in current data, researchers can narrow down possible values for the universe's expansion rate.
Applying it to existing LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA data, which hasn't yet detected the background, they found that non-detection alone was enough to rule out certain slower expansion rates. Combined with measurements from individually detected mergers, it shifted the overall Hubble constant estimate into the range where the tension actually bites . This marks the first time a gravitational-wave measurement has directly addressed the disputed region of the Hubble tension.
The stochastic siren method could really come into its own over the next six years, as sensitivity increases and scientists can tighten the constraints on the Hubble constant. After this period, gravitational wave detectors should be sensitive enough to "hear" much of the gravitational wave background, and this method could have developed enough to provide an independent measure of the Hubble constant, potentially ending the Hubble tension .
The implications extend far beyond just solving a measurement problem. University of Chicago Professor Daniel Holz comments, "It's not every day that you come up with an entirely new tool for cosmology. We show that by using the background gravitational-wave hum from merging black holes in distant galaxies, we can learn about the age and composition of the universe" . If the Hubble tension persists despite multiple independent measurements, it could signal that scientists need to revise their understanding of the early universe , potentially pointing toward new physics or unknown forms of energy that have shaped cosmic evolution.