Finn's Take· TL;DRIran launched a devastating wave of missiles and drones across the Gulf on Thursday, targeting Qatar's massive Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex and energy facilities in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait . The strikes caused "extensive damage" to Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export facility , marking a dangerous escalation in a conflict that has already sent global energy prices soaring.
Brent crude oil jumped above $116 per barrel, more than 50% higher since the war began February 28 , while European natural gas prices surged 24% higher on Thursday . Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter accounting for nearly a fifth of global shipments, had already suspended production at Ras Laffan following earlier Iranian attacks .
Early reports suggest the attacks damaged 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity, with repairs projected to take three to five years . The strikes also ignited fires at Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah refineries, which together have a petroleum production capacity of 730,000 barrels per day .
The Iranian attacks came hours after Israel struck facilities at Iran's South Pars gas field complex, damaging four plants that process gas from the offshore field . The South Pars field gives Iran the second-largest proven gas reserves in the world , making it a critical economic target.
President Trump said Israel acted alone in striking the gas field, writing on Truth Social that "the United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved" . Trump later warned that if Iran attacks Qatar again, the US "will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen" .
Iran had warned Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to evacuate their energy facilities ahead of the Ras Laffan strike , but Gulf states say Iranian attacks "cannot go unanswered" and their patience "can't and won't last forever" . Qatar expelled Iranian military attachés and declared them "persona non grata" in response to the attacks .
The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran , a staggering sum that would represent a major expenditure considering the entire military budget for fiscal 2026 was $1 trillion . Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the request, saying "it takes money to kill bad guys" and the funding would ensure ammunition stockpiles are "refilled, and not just refilled, but above and beyond" .
The U.S. has spent roughly $1 billion per day on the war so far, with the first 12 days costing about $16.5 billion. At that rate, an extra $200 billion could potentially fund the war through mid-August . Hegseth declined to provide a timeline for ending the conflict, saying "it will be at the president's choosing, ultimately, where we say, 'Hey, we've achieved what we need to'" .
Iran has paralyzed the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane with incessant missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels, effectively blocking tanker movement through the passageway that handles about 20% of global oil supplies . This escalation represents a shift from military headlines to "hitting the plumbing of the global energy system," fueling fears of rising inflation and "growing stagflation risk" .
The European Central Bank warned the war would have a "material impact" on near-term inflation, with financial markets now expecting euro zone inflation to climb close to 4% over the next year . Energy experts warn of an "all bets are off" scenario if attacks spread beyond the Persian Gulf, potentially triggering "extreme volatility" with oil and gas prices surging as traders "price in worst-case scenarios" .
The targeting of energy infrastructure marks a critical turning point in the three-week conflict, transforming what began as a military confrontation into a global economic crisis with far-reaching implications for energy