Investor Predicts 65% Nvidia Rally Despite Market Uncertainty

Major Tech Spending Powers Bullish Outlook

Nova Capital, an investor known for its bullish stance, said that Nvidia stock (NVDA) has a big move ahead, expecting a 65% upside over the next 12-24 months. This bold prediction comes as the artificial intelligence chip giant prepares for what many consider its most critical earnings report in years on February 25.

The optimism stems from unprecedented capital expenditure commitments from major tech companies. Look no further than the earnings reports of the four horsemen (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta), which appear poised to ramp up spending from nearly $400 billion in 2025 to an astounding $700 billion in capex this year. This massive investment surge positions Nvidia as the primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.

The investor believes the company's secular bullish story remains intact and is driven by sustained AI capital expenditure from major tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta, projected to reach $650 billion in 2026. Despite concerns about potential bubbles and margin compression, the underlying demand for AI infrastructure continues to accelerate.

Wall Street Maintains Strong Conviction

Professional analysts remain overwhelmingly positive about Nvidia's prospects. NVDA commands an overwhelming Strong Buy consensus rating, backed by 37 Buys, 1 Hold, and just 1 Sell. The average price target sits at $260.38, implying significant upside from current levels around $185.

Several prominent analysts have raised their targets recently. He now sets a head-spinning $250 base-case target for Nvidia by the end of 2026, which represents a 33% gain from its current price at $187.67 (at the time of writing). This comes from veteran tech analyst Dan Ives at Wedbush Securities, who argues that the market still underestimates the scope of the AI buildout.

In fact, he feels it's the complete opposite, with the market only in year three of an eight-to 10-year buildout, which is why the choppiness hasn't broken the underlying trend. To illustrate his point further, he says only about 3% of U.S. companies are meaningfully using AI today, with most still in the evaluation or pilot phase.

February Earnings Could Be Catalyst

The upcoming earnings announcement on February 25 represents a potential inflection point for the stock. For Q4 FY2026, the company has guided for revenue of approximately $65 billion, a staggering 67% increase year-over-year. However, whisper numbers on Wall Street suggest that anything less than $67 billion could be viewed as a disappointment.

Goldman Sachs expects the company to exceed consensus estimates by nearly $2 billion. Wall Street predicts Nvidia will report $65.55 billion in quarterly revenue, but Goldman Sachs expects the company to surpass that level by almost $2 billion. Recent commentary from management suggests demand continues to outpace expectations.

For example, Nvidia finance chief Colette Kress said early this year that demand continues to increase, with AI product revenue from last year through the end of 2026 set to surpass an earlier $500 billion forecast. This revision upward indicates the company's ability to capture more market share than initially anticipated.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

While the bullish case appears strong, Nvidia faces several headwinds that could impact near-term performance. The Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ: .IXIC) is down roughly 3% year-to-date in 2026, reflecting a growing "AI fatigue" among investors. While the demand for compute remains "off the charts," according to industry insiders, the sheer scale of investment is beginning to weigh on the balance sheets of Nvidia's largest customers.

However, several positive developments could drive the stock higher. The U.S., after strengthening export controls last year and halting chip deliveries to China, in recent weeks gave Nvidia the go-ahead to export its H200 system. And later this year, Nvidia aims to release the Rubin platform, fulfilling its promise to innovate on an annual basis.

The company's next-generation Rubin architecture represents a significant technological leap. Additionally, Nvidia's Rubin platform or Rubin chip architecture is expected to provide huge efficiency improvements over the passive Blackwell generation. This new technology can allow Nvidia to continue delivering stellar growth. With production ramping in the second half of 2026, this could provide another growth driver beyond current expectations.