Scientists Map Million Space Routes to Prevent Satellite Crashes

Supercomputers Chart Cosmic Traffic Patterns

Space around Earth is becoming dangerously crowded, with over 45,000 human-made objects orbiting Earth . Now, scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have created an unprecedented solution: a database mapping 1 million orbits in cislunar space —the region between Earth and the Moon.

The massive computational effort required 1.6 million CPU hours—equivalent to more than 182 years on a single computer. Once they worked through the process, the team ran their simulations in just three days on LLNL's Quartz and Ruby supercomputers . This open-access database could revolutionize how we navigate the increasingly treacherous space around our planet.

Finding Order in Orbital Chaos

The research reveals a sobering reality about space travel complexity. "If you want to know where a satellite is in a week, there's no equation that can actually tell you where it's going to be," said Yeager. "You have to step forward a little bit at a time." The team had to account for Earth's uneven gravitational field, explaining that "Earth is not a point source. It is actually blobby. There is lower gravity over Canada than there is over the Atlantic Ocean" .

Of the million orbital paths modeled, about half of the orbits remained stable for at least one year, and just under 10% remained stable for the full six years of the simulation . This data provides crucial insights for mission planners trying to avoid the growing debris field that threatens both current satellites and future space exploration.

Collision Course with Crisis

The urgency behind this research becomes clear when examining current collision trends. While in 2019 only 0.2% of satellites in Earth orbit were forced to perform more than 10 collision-avoidance maneuvers per month, that percentage had risen sevenfold by early 2025, to 1.4% . This means some 340 satellites spend a lot of time dodging debris and other spacecraft .

The problem is accelerating rapidly. While in 2019 about 13,700 objects resided in low Earth orbit, that number has since risen to 24,185 objects in 2025, an increase of 76%. By the end of this decade, some 70,000 satellites may reside in LEO, representing a more than fivefold increase compared to the 2019 situation .

Mapping Space Traffic Intersections

The Lawrence Livermore dataset offers a practical solution to this growing crisis. By analyzing the orbital data, researchers may be able to identify the "busiest intersections," or the most useful positions for a satellite to monitor and direct traffic. This could be especially useful as countries continue to launch satellites without world-wide coordination .

The researchers envision using machine learning to extract patterns from their massive dataset. "When you have a million orbits, you can get a really rich analysis using machine learning applications," LLNL scientist Denvir Higgins said. "You can try to predict the lifetime of the orbit, try to predict stability or try to do anomaly detection to see if an orbit is moving in a strange way."

As space becomes increasingly congested with commercial mega-constellations and growing debris fields, this comprehensive orbital map could prove essential for preventing the catastrophic collisions that threaten our technological civilization's reliance on satellite infrastructure. The open-source nature of the data ensures that space agencies, companies, and researchers worldwide can collaborate to keep our cosmic highways safe for future generations.