Trump Approval Rating Plummets to Historic Low Amid Economic Turmoil

Economic Discontent Drives Record Disapproval

President Donald Trump's approval rating has crashed to the lowest point of either presidential term, with 31 percent of Americans approving of his job performance while 64 percent disapprove , according to a new American Research Group poll. The dramatic decline marks a stunning reversal for a president who built his political brand on economic competence and won re-election promising to tackle inflation.

The numbers tell a stark story of eroding confidence. Trump's net approval rating hit a new second-term low of -20.1, dropping from -19.1 just one week earlier and -18.6 the week before that . Multiple polling organizations are capturing the same downward trajectory, with net approval ratings of -22 according to The New York Times/Siena, -20 according to AtlasIntel, and -26 according to CBS News/YouGov .

What makes these numbers particularly damaging is their breadth. The disapproval cuts across independents and is increasingly pessimistic even among some of his own supporters . Among the crucial independent voting bloc that often determines elections, just 25 percent approve while 69 percent disapprove .

Inflation Becomes Trump's Achilles Heel

The driving force behind Trump's political troubles is clear: Americans are feeling squeezed by rising prices, and they're blaming the president. Net approval of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living has plummeted to -41.8 , while just 25 percent of Americans approve of how he's handling inflation while 69 percent disapprove—a net of -44 percent .

This represents a remarkable political reversal. Biden oversaw an inflation peak of 9 percent, which Trump hasn't approached, yet Trump's disapproval has surpassed Biden's worst . The problem stems partly from unrealistic expectations Trump set during his campaign. Trump promised voters before the 2024 election that "a vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper" , but prices haven't fallen as promised.

The May collapse reflects accelerating tariff-driven inflation and Q1 GDP coming in at +2.0% but PCE inflation hitting 4.5%—raising stagflation concerns . Even more troubling for working families, this recent inflation surge has pushed consumer prices above cumulative year-on-year wage gains , meaning Americans are losing purchasing power.

Republican Support Shows Cracks

Perhaps most ominous for Trump's political future is the erosion of support within his own party. Between February and May alone, Republican net approval fell by 14 points in Fox News surveys . While 69 percent of Republicans still approve of Trump's job performance , that represents a significant decline from earlier in his term.

The shift is particularly pronounced on economic issues. Among Republicans, 37 percent now disapprove of the president's handling of inflation, up 11 points since March . Republican pollster Daron Shaw captured the mood succinctly: "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering" .

Midterm Elections in Jeopardy

These approval numbers carry serious implications for Republican hopes of maintaining control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. Every president who triggered a wave midterm loss saw independent approval fall below 40 percent before Election Day, and Trump's 34 percent puts him well into wave territory, now below the 36 percent level that preceded Democrats' 41-seat gain in 2018 .

The political environment has shifted dramatically since Trump's re-election victory. A new New York Times/Siena poll found that 50 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district if an election occurred today—up from 48 percent in January and 47 percent in September of last year . For Republicans facing competitive races, Trump's declining popularity represents a growing liability rather than an asset.

The president's economic struggles may prove difficult to reverse before November. The conditions driving Trump's decline are structural: tariff-driven inflation, rising consumer prices, and sustained independent dissatisfaction. The key recovery scenarios are a negotiated trade deal reducing tariff costs, a sharp improvement in consumer confidence, or an external event triggering a rally effect . Without such developments, Republicans may face their most challenging midterm environment since 2018.